Sunni Set
An Unnoticed Result of Trump’s Stupid War
Just a short one today.
I haven’t seen anyone mention the biggest long-term impact of Trump’s idiotic war with Iran.
That is the setting of the Sunni Sun.
The Sunni Arabs, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf kingdoms, are seeing their power and wealth systematically destroyed in this conflict. The power of Shia Islam, centered in Iran, is growing apace, although no one’s getting rich on this.
Unlike Christianity’s Protestants and Catholics, Sunni and Shia Muslims have been in conflict since the beginnings of the religion. Many of Islam’s great intellectual achievements originated in Shia Iran. Until the 20th century, Arabia was a desert.
Then they found oil.
Now that gift is proving double-edged. They can’t export it. Even while its value is being raised by Ukraine’s successful war against Russian infrastructure, they can’t benefit.
In the long run, this is not a bad thing.
Oil is destroying this planet. Anything that cuts the power of oil, and proves to people that harvesting the cheap, abundant solar and wind energy on our planet makes sense is a good thing. The War Against Oil is being won, and we must give the devil his due.
But Gianni Infantino needs a new sugar daddy. The New York style skyscraper era of the Gulf States is over. The investments Gulf Arabs made diversifying away from oil must now be wound down, even reversed, because they need the cash to survive their own people.
Not being Muslim myself, I can’t speak to the religious significance of this. But speaking just as an observer, it’s glorious.
We carry within us the seeds of our own destruction.
I don't think the real story is just Sunni vs Shia. A lot of this goes back to the 1970s and the Cold War, when the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran all started playing bigger roles in the region.
Saudi oil money helped spread a much more hardline version of Sunni Islam through scholarships, mosques and Salafi preaching. Iran's revolution was doing its own thing, spreading its ideology and building Shia networks.
And they destroyed Somalia. It wasn't just Al Shabaab appearing out of nowhere. There were decades of foreign interference, money, weapons, political manipulation and outside governments supporting different groups. Saudi-funded religious networks spread through Somalia and East Africa too, and a lot of the traditional Sufi Islam that had been part of our communities for generations got pushed aside. Iran did the same kind of power politics in Afghanistan. They recruited Afghan Shia, especially Hazaras, into the Fatemiyoun Brigade and sent them to fight in Syria. At the same time, Iran has dealt with the Taliban even after the Taliban killed nine Iranian diplomats in 1998. That's because these governments aren't really guided by ideology when it comes down to survival. They do whatever protects their interests. Then look at what happened when governments became weak. Somalia, northern Nigeria, the Sahel, parts of East Africa. Al Shabaab, Boko Haram and JNIM filled those spaces. And now Saudi Arabia has Vision 2030 and wants everyone to see a modern Saudi Arabia. But you can't erase decades of what happened just by changing the image. I'm saying this because this isn't just history to me. Members of our own family died because of this. That's why I don't see it as Sunni vs Shia. I see it as powerful countries using religion, money, weapons and ideology to fight for influence, while regular people pay the price. Somalia is one of the places that paid the biggest price.