A lot of liberal Democrats, helped along by ignorant Washington pundits, insist that Democrats are in trouble.
They’re not. We’re just not.
Yes. Republicans have put in idiotic voter suppression laws. Yes, Republicans want to gerrymander. Yes, there are big money groups hiding their support for right-wing causes. Yes, Fox News. I get it.
But there are bigger, stronger, longer-term trends at work here.
Republicans are aging out. Republican voters are, on average, older than Democrats. Trumpers in their 70s and 80s are dying every day. Every day, 18 year-olds (likely Democrats) are being registered. The demographics are clear.
Trumpers are choosing to die. Most of the unvaccinated are now Republicans. At this point, it’s a choice being vaccinated. Republicans are choosing to risk their lives to COVID. Some are going to lose the bet. This will become clear to their neighbors and family and friends, who are then likely to get vaccinated. Not true in every case, but percentages don’t lie.
Red states are now paying bonuses so remote workers will relocate. They’re encouraging their own blue-ing. How many programmers must move to Wyoming to flip it? Idaho? Montana? People who are working from home on their computers also bring demand for amenities like education, good health care, and pricey restaurants.
Republicans are purging their own ranks. Purged Republicans don’t fall in line. They stay home. Some even go the other way. We’ve seen it in elite circles. It’s happening beyond those circles.
Biden is popular. He’s going to stay popular. The economy is getting better. The inflation fire will be put out by tech deflation.
Democrats are aware of the threats. It’s in everything we read and watch. We’re going to show up, we’re going to be active when the time comes. We’re not going to act like we did in 2010, pretending everything will be all right. We’re going to fight as hard as the other side will. And, like the Union in 1984, we’re going to have numbers on our side.
It’s going to be a hard campaign, but Democrats are going to be more successful than any now imagine. After which the rest of the Democrats’ program will be passed, and the trends will accelerate. January 6 was the high water mark. It was Gettysburg, it was Hitler’s invasion of Russia. People weren’t confident in late 1863 or early 1942, either. But the tide had turned.
The tide is turning.