Moore’s Law of Politics

The political price of a longer life

There is no Moore’s Law of Politics. Quite the opposite.

As I have sought to explain in my continuing rewrites of my Moore’s Lore book, the values of our youth are taken into age. Longer lives mean obsolete beliefs bedevil democracy.

My own views were shaped by this generational delay. I believed that Democrats had a real shot in 2004, because we were a full generation removed from 1968. In fact, the 1960s dominated that campaign. So it was that when Barack Obama won, a man born in the 1960s I thought, well we won’t have Vietnam to kick around anymore. Again, I was wrong. The 2016 campaign was fought over the same old ground.

There are still voters who remember the 1970s, even the 1960s. I am one of them. But we’re finally a minority. While half the electorate was still over 50 in 2020 the median voter still had no memory of the Moon Landing.

Peace is also unknown to the average American voter. Most us of us grew up in the era of resources, of wars for oil, or the Cold War.

When I first launched my blog, in 2006, I wrote a lot about the idea of a generational thesis and antithesis. A thesis, in this case, represents the dominant strain of political thought. An antithesis is its opposite. Each time a new industry and medium rises, the old thesis falls, and something based on the antithesis takes its place.

This has happened consistently since 1860. The Mugwumps became the heart of the Progressive movement. The urban and rural coalition built by Wilson became the heart of FDR’s coalition. The suburban voters who supported Eisenhower became Nixon’s Silent Majority. Today Obama’s Techlandia is taking over from Trumpistan.

It’s only due to Moore’s Law of Politics that it’s taking so long. Were it not for Moore’s Law of Politics, Donald Trump would never have happened. And a man who is the same age my dad was when he died could never be President.